David DeFreese's Reality Report - Part 2

A the GOP presidential candidates continue to vie for the top spot, the media and the voters are keeping a close eye.  Basically everyone goes on by the poll results, but some of us don't place much stock in polls. We are not quite certain that they are polling the proper people and the seem to concentrate on Iowa and New Hampshire. The candidates ofter are at the mercy of the media and whether or not they choose to give them  negative publicity or give viewers a positive view of a candidate.

One example was Rick Perry's standout performance at the CBS debate.  Most of the coverage we read chose to focus on Governor Perry's exchange with CBS' Scott Pelley about his gaffe at the previous debate, rather than the  fact that Governor Perry performed well and it was quite clear that he is knowledgeable and conversant  on issues of foreign policy as opposed to some of  the other candidates. 

This week we welcome the return of David DeFreese with a follow up to the Reality Report he brought us last week.  Enjoy!

Sister One

for Two Sisters of the Right

Reality Report: Part Two

by David DeFreese

I heard Mary Jo Matalin on CNN  speaking to John King recently.  She said on the show that the GOP nomination is coming down to 3 groups, the ABM (Anybody But Mitt) Group, the Newt Group and the Perry Group.

So essentially what I predicted in my first Reality Report is coming to pass.

Mitt Romney  will always have his 25%, so it will come down to Newt Gingrich competing against Rick Perry for the remaining 75% of the votes once the rest of the field drops out of the primary race. 

It is possible that Perry and Gingrich  could split the 75% in a way that leaves them the last two men standing. But the vast percentage of that 75% are Tea Party members, meaning Perry will beat Newt, and in sufficient numbers to beat Romney. Why? As I said Mitt will always have that 25%, but Newt won't do much better because of his lack of appeal to that vast number of Tea Party voters comprising that remaining 75%.

So this means it'll come down to Governor Rick Perry vs. former Governor Mitt Romney, or it could go the other way, Rick Perry  vs. Newt Gingrich.

Personally I hope it is Perry  vs. Romney  because Newt Gingrich will pick up a lot of Romney voters if he drops Romney drops out. This could put the race into a statistical dead heat between Rick and Newt, in which case I am betting Perry will win by a nose. 

However,  in either scenario, I predict Rick Perry  comes up the winner!

Copyright David DeFreese - November 2011

Our thanks to David for his analysis and prediction.  May  you be correct.  Two Sisters From The Right believe that a Rick Perry win is a true victory for the United States!

Sister One