The Importance of Iowa

Many have wondered why Iowa and New Hampshire are so important in the selection of presidential candidates.  Two Sisters From The Right also wanted some explanations and found these detailed below.

The Iowa caucuses are the first step in the nominating processes of the Democratic and Republican parties. As a result, Iowa garners a vastly disproportionate number of candidate visits and amount of media attention. A better than expected showing on caucus night can boost a candidacy, while a poor performance can spell the end of a candidate's hopes. 1


It is actually written into the campaign rules of each major party that candidates are not permitted to campaign in other states until after the Iowa caucus and then the New Hampshire primary.


The idea is that, as lower-population states without a major metropolitan area, IA and NH somehow represent the median American opinion. Another part of the argument is that the candidates wouldn’t bother to campaign outside of California, Texas, New York, Florida, and a few other states with many electoral votes, unless they were forced by tradition to spend time in a smaller state, which would in turn fail to represent the opinions of non-urban Americans.


The Iowa caucuses were usually the first "events" in the presidential primaries, with New Hampshire close behind, so a win in these two states could always give a dark horse candidate sudden national visibility.


Mostly just because they come very early in the primaries and they are the first chance candidates get to show that they can actually get votes in a real election. A good showing can make a weak candidate look stronger and a poor showing can make a strong candidate look like a loser. In politics, results are everything.


We've collected  several current articles on how Iowa and the possibility of the January results is affecting the candidates and their strategies.  Many in the media as well as pollsters feel that they have the results figured out.  Whether or not that is true remains to be seen.  I the end the results will be the votes cast by the people of Iowa and they will depend on how well each candidate conveyed his message.  We hope that Iowa voters will not be swayed by the media and the polls but rather by the candidates themselves.
Two Sisters
Sources: http://askville.amazon.com/Iowa-Hampshire-important-Presidental-election/AnswerViewer.do?requestId=5546667

Iowa Poll:  Indecision Is Still Factor In Race
by Jayson Clayworth - Des Moines Register
 
An ocean of fluidity floods the race for the GOP presidential nomination, which means Iowans should brace for the possibility of additional changing tides of voter support before the Jan. 3 caucuses, political insiders concurred Sunday after studying results of the latest Iowa Poll. 


“I think now as they look at Speaker (Newt) Gingrich’s record, as they look at Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, I have no doubt that people will come back home on Jan. 3 and vote for me,” U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., confidently predicted in an interview Sunday with The Des Moines Register.  Read More


It's On - Campaign Ad Wars Begin in Iowa
by Arlette Saenz - ABC News


With just under 30 days until the first nominating contest in the country, the ad war in Iowa is officially heating up this week as four campaigns are pouring in cash and air time to try to boost their standing through television spots airing across the state.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who leads the Republican pack in the Hawkeye State, will release his first television ad Monday. Titled “Is The America We Love A Thing Of the Past?


Newt Says No,” the minute-long ad will appear statewide on broadcast and cable with an ad buy of $250,000. It is unknown how long the TV spot will run. Gingrich currently sits atop the Republican field but has yet to promote himself via advertising this campaign cycle, relying instead on media coverage of his speeches and debates.
Read More






Donald Trump Debate in Iowa Draws Few Gop Candidates Thus Far

By Tracy Jan, Boston Globe


 WASHINGTON -- The Republican field thus far is not jumping at the chance to spar with each other in a debate moderated by Donald Trump.


Of the seven viable candidates left in the GOP field, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was the first to confirm his appearnce at the Dec. 27 debate in Des Moines, saying over the weekend, “I would want to go just for the entertainment value.”


The brush-off – or lack of response -- by most of the others is surprising given that one by one, contenders for the GOP presidential nomination have courted the real estate mogul cum reality show star cum wannabe presidential candidate who’s somehow been anointed a kingmaker in Republican politics. Read More




Is Newt Gingrich The Gop Candidate Obama Prefers To Face

by Peter Grier - The Christian Science Monitor


Newt Gingrich is rising like a rocket. He’s the new Republican presidential front-runner. He’s en fuego, if you know what we mean.


The latest evidence of this is a just-out Iowa Poll, which puts Mr. Gingrich in the lead in the Hawkeye State as the choice of 25 percent of likely caucusgoers. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is second, with 18 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is third, at 15 percent
.
If anything, Gingrich does even better in national surveys. Right now he’s getting about 27 percent of the GOP vote, according to RealClearPolitics rolling average. Mr. Romney is second, at 20 percent. Read more




GOP Field Begins To Narrow
by Hayley Peterson - The Washington Examiner


The Republican presidential race was scrambled over the weekend when businessman Herman Cain, a one-time front-runner, suspended his campaign, but the field is likely to remain set at seven until voting in the 2012 contest begins a month from now.


At least three candidates -- Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum -- are each counting on a miraculous surge of support in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses to keep their campaigns alive. But the caucuses have ended more campaigns than they've launched.


"What the caucuses do is winnow the field, because Iowa is a relatively inexpensive state where candidates who are less well known can try out their message and try out their candidacy and see how they play," said Dennis J. Goldford, author of the book, "The Iowa Precinct Caucuses: The Making of a Media Event." Read More




Make Fun of Iowa All You Want, It's Still The Most Important State
by Ed Kilgore - The New Republic


In the lead up to voting in the presidential nominating contest, the only thing that reliably rivals the scrutiny received by Iowa is the disparagement expressed against the tyranny of the Great Corn Idol.


With its unrepresentative electorate, its peculiar demands on candidates, and its odd procedures for making its preferences manifest, the Iowa caucuses have been singled out by many as an ill-conceived ritual whose time is long past. Back in June, Daily Beast columnist Peter Beinart celebrated Mitt Romney’s apparent decision (apparently now reversed) to shirk the state, arguing “the Iowa caucuses bear only a faint resemblance to democracy.”


And beyond Romney’s initial strategy of making only minimal effort in the state, there have been other cheerful signs for Iowa-haters that the first-in-the-nation caucus was losing its storied influence. The candidates most married to a slavish Iowa-first approach—Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Santorum—have not fared well, even in Iowa itself, with local polls instead closely mirroring the rapid attention swings in the national media. Read More